Strengthening Anglo-Irish Relations & Environmental Security: Lessons from the RHI Scandal and NI Executive Collapse

Daniel Wolfe graduated from the School of Foreign Service in 2024. He majored in Science, Technology and International Affairs (STIA) and minored in Chinese. 

During a stay with relatives in May of 2021, I was struck by the unique political situation of Northern Ireland, not to mention the ongoing energy and cost-of-living crises. Even in May, the approach of the 12th of July had heightened sectarian tensions and wider debates. This event commemorates the victory of King William of Orange over King James II in 1690, which assured the Protestant domination of Ireland. The parades that mark “the 12th” are highly controversial and have led many Catholic-majority localities to contest their routes due to public security concerns, which have been blocked by the government in Belfast. At the time of my visit in 2021, and for many years since the Legislative Assembly was set up after the Belfast / Good Friday Agreement, there was no Northern Ireland Executive for such concerns to be addressed to, sparking concerns about political violence post-Brexit.

But parades are not the only policy issue affected by the periodic lack of effective government in Northern Ireland. The Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scandal in Northern Ireland (NI) stands as a stark reminder of the intricate relationship between environmental policies and political stability. Introduced by the UK government in London in 2012, the rollout of this incentive program was facilitated by the Democratic Unionist Minister of Parliament Arlene Foster, who would become First Minister of Northern Ireland five years later in 2017. When the Sinn Féin deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness resigned following Foster’s refusal to recuse herself from RHI-related investigations, the Northern Ireland Executive collapsed. Due to the principles of consociationalism incorporated into the electoral processes for the NI Executive, both offices were left vacant until 2020.

On a Thursday afternoon in March, I had the unique opportunity to attend an on-campus event with Mary Lou McDonald in which she addressed the students in Prof. Conor Donnan’s class, “Modern Ireland” (HIST-2421). As President of Sinn Féin, McDonald placed the grander ambitions of the party into the recent context of conflict in Ukraine, an economic crisis in the UK and Europe, and the recent election of Michelle O’Neill as First Minister. As the first Catholic to hold the position, the NI Executive of O’Neill was made further unique by its all-women composition, with Democratic Unionist Party Emma Little-Pengelly holding the position of deputy First Minister.

Occurring during the annual state-side visit of leaders from Dublin and Belfast for St. Patrick’s Day, the significance of McDonald’s was heightened by an emergent divide in the economic performance and quality of life between the UK and Northern Ireland as compared to the Republic of Ireland and the EU. Firm in her expression of Sinn Fein’s continued aims of Irish reunification, the possibility of this strategic ambition felt remarkably close. The practical drivers of economic and quality of life disparities — energy, conflict, environment — appeared to me as the most impactful way to analyze a subject laden with normative assumptions and charged political rhetoric.

Environmental Conflict

Initiated in NI under the supervision of the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETI) and led by the later First Minister Arlene Foster (DUP) in 2012, the Renewable Heat Incentive encouraged businesses, farmers, and other non-domestic users to switch from using fossil fuels to renewable heating systems. RHI Scheme Participants in Northern Ireland were encouraged to install renewable heating systems specialized to local energy resources. Notably, the prevalence of the less emissions-efficient peat was highly competitive due to Ireland’s vast resources of this specific commodity, positioning the replacement technologies of biomass boilers and heat pumps as requiring significantly more near-term financial backing from the UK government.

In 2016, however, the deep structural inefficiencies of the RHI scheme first came to light with it being revealed that the subsidy payments over time would exceed the cost of the fuel and the installation, purportedly to compensate for the higher running costs of renewable energy systems. The perverse incentive structure encouraged scheme participants to “burn to earn,” whereby extra benefits would be given for less efficient fuel consumption. The scale of potential overspending stood at almost £500 million during the fiscal year that the scandal came to light.

Amidst widespread budget tightening and uncertainty post-Brexit, the RHI Scandal prompted the resignation of the Sinn Féin Deputy Prime Minister in 2017, with both offices of the NI Executive remaining vacant until the coronavirus forced bilateral compromises in 2020. This crucially coincided with international political observers expressing heightened concerns of sectarian violence, with the collapse of the NI Executive bringing down one of the most significant power-sharing innovations from the GFA. The collapse of the NI Executive in January 2017 further complicated efforts to address environmental challenges in the aftermath of the RHI scandal.

The NI Executive was further responsible for environmental and sustainability policy, a key area of devolution as stipulated by the “New Decade, New Approach” in 2020, which ended the offices’ three-year vacancy. The political instability during the vacancy left NI without any officially coordinated response to massive legislative activity on issues of energy, renewable technologies, and net zero emissions (NZE) transition. Conversely, more socially contentious took center stage, leaving an area of policy-making critical to NI’s stability severely neglected.

Environmental Security

Environmental security provides a critical paradigm through which to analyze how the neglect of environmental issues has a negative impact on the security situation in Northern Ireland, while also incentivizing policymakers to place further importance on environmental policy. As NI navigates sustainable governance practices both in environmental and sectarian terms, an apparatus for integrating Parliamentary action vis-à-vis the environment with security concerns is a clear necessity for Belfast, London, and Dublin.

Considering the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction and political uncertainty, the NI Executive of O’Neill and Little-Pengelly can strengthen optimism through an embrace of environmental security as a fundamental component of sustainable development and peacebuilding. The integration of environmental considerations into policymaking processes to ensure their effective implementation and enforcement is certainly precedented.

The Environmental Governance in Northern Ireland report called for the establishment of an independent environmental protection agency, similar to those in other UK jurisdictions, to oversee environmental compliance and enforcement (Eli, 2018). Such an agency would fill existing gaps in regulatory oversight and provide a dedicated platform for addressing environmental concerns. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides valuable guidance and resources for strengthening environmental governance and promoting sustainable development at the national and regional levels (UNEP, 2020). By leveraging these resources and collaborating with international partners, NI can enhance its capacity to address environmental threats and seize opportunities for green growth and resilience.

Beyond its immediate economic implications, the RHI scandal also raised questions about the integrity of NI’s environmental policies and institutions. The failure to preempt glaring regulatory failure highlights the weaknesses in existing environmental governance structures, including inadequate transparency, accountability, and stakeholder engagement (O’Leary et al., 2018). Moreover, the aftermath of RHI must be met with calls for more robust mechanisms to ensure the alignment of environmental objectives with broader societal goals, such as economic development and social equity. Public trust and civic engagement with environmental security building has also been an active area of research by the Crown. The Independent Review of the RHI Scheme, commissioned by the Department for the Economy, proposed a series of reforms aimed at preventing future scandals and strengthening oversight of renewable energy initiatives (Independent Review Panel, 2017). These reforms included enhanced transparency measures, stricter eligibility criteria, and improved governance structures to ensure accountability and compliance.

The collapse of the Northern Ireland Executive due to environmental issues highlights the value of integrating security and climate-focused analysis for legislators on both sides of the Irish Sea. The necessity of secure and sustainable futures can be communicated to a diverse electorate and further incentivized through power-sharing institutions that incorporate responsive environmental security practices.