A Balancing Act: The Immigration Dilemma Facing the Democratic Party and Sinn Féin

Patrick McSweeney received his PhD from Georgetown University in December 2024. His dissertation explored generational conflict within the American Democratic Party. He currently works as a research specialist at Georgetown’s Civic Education Research Lab (CERL) and as an adjunct lecturer in the Government Department. Learn more about Patrick’s research at his website.

In 2024, both the United States and the Republic of Ireland held national elections. The American Democratic Party and Irish Sinn Féin both rely on large blocs of young voters. However, the interests of young people often diverge from older partisans, creating a messaging conundrum as the party considers the tradeoffs between focusing on young people versus other age groups and demographics. In 2024, immigration emerged as a salient and challenging issue for both parties as they sought to balance their existing coalition and persuade voters from the margins. For both of these left-leaning parties, attempts to both veer right on the issue and keep young voters happy resulted in confusing messaging that may have weakened the party’s electoral chances.

On both sides of the Atlantic, immigration was a dominant issue in recent political discourse. In Ireland, the large number of refugees from Ukraine resulted in frustration from a public who was already feeling the pressure of the lack of housing supply. This concern escalated after the stabbing of a woman and three children by a naturalized Irish citizen, which led to protests and riots throughout the country. In the US, the concern has come from the large number of migrants entering the Southern border. In contrast to Republicans and Donald Trump, Democrats took a more lenient approach to the border in 2020 and the early parts of Biden’s presidency. However, increased pressure from the public and communities where increased migration has impacted their way of life has forced them to demonstrate a commitment to addressing what many in the public view as a crisis.

In a country where ideology has not typically defined electoral politics, Sinn Féin’s approach has been to develop an agenda with bold left-leaning policies, exciting the youngest generation of voters. Much of their 2020 success can be credited to young voters who wanted an alternative to the parties that have dominated Ireland since the Revolution. Sinn Féin has still been able to gain the votes of older voters too, but these age groups are more likely to remain supportive of the two traditional parties. Toward the end of 2023, Sinn Féin was soaring in the polls and it looked to have the strength to win the election. However, the emergence of immigration as a salient issue would jeopardize this momentum.

Using data from the February 2024 Irish Times poll, we observe significant age differences in how Irish voters view the immigration issue. Compared to older respondents, young people are less supportive of a more closed immigration policy. There is definitely some support from the group, but a party that is hoping for a big electoral victory requires votes from all age groups. During this time, immigration was the most important issue for Irish voters, eclipsing the economic issues on which Sinn Féin had built its base. Even though Sinn Féin was in the opposition, it drew much criticism for the mixed messages that emerged as the party failed to present a convincing message around the issue.

Immigration dominated Irish politics for many months before the election. However, according to the 20204 exit polls, only six percent of voters said immigration was the most important issue for their vote. Instead, issues like housing and the cost of living were the most important. This should have been good news for Sinn Féin, who had built their coalition around these issues and they are also viewed as weaknesses of the current government. However, immigration may have influenced voters before the election, explaining Sinn Féin’s rapid drop in support throughout 2024. Several independent candidates had success running with more right-wing immigration positions and some of this success may have come at the expense of Sinn Féin.

In the United States, immigration was a salient issue throughout the election, with Trump weaponizing immigrants, blaming them for many of the issues the country was facing. He blamed Democrats for the crisis, arguing that their weakness on the issue would result in further problems if re-elected. To counter these attacks, Democrats attempted to move to the right on the issue. They highlighted the Senate bill they negotiated with Republicans that would strengthen border security but failed because Trump pushed Republicans in the Senate to abandon it. As president, Biden also passed several executive orders that limited the number of asylum seekers that could enter the country each day.

These positions were electorally calculated, but they frustrated many young Democrats who called for a less restrictive immigration policy. In response to Biden’s executive order, United We Dream, a youth immigration activist organization criticized the president, arguing “Biden’s shameful rightward shift betrays immigrant communities and fails his commitment to uphold everyone’s freedoms. This executive order is a heinous step in the WRONG direction” This messaging shows the tradeoffs the party must consider when balancing a broad coalition. The figure below further demonstrates the age differences that are present on this issue. Here I have also grouped respondents by party identification and we find significant age differences in each grouping. It is the independents that the party is trying to reach with a more conservative immigration policy, but even here a significant age difference is present. Young Americans are less likely to be convinced by a hardened stance on the issue, and it might create a disconnect between them and the party.

These young voters may be frustrated, but with the Republican Party even further from their position they had few viable alternatives. In this instance, these young voters are seen as what Paul Frymer calls a captured group. The party has little incentive to prioritize their demands and can instead focus on other groups. In Ireland, the party capture theory is less relevant. With several parties to choose from, there are many alternatives for both young and old voters who feel abandoned by their preferred party on immigration. In some cases, these parties may still be a potential coalition partner for Sinn Féin, but switching to other parties may lead to Sinn Féin spending another term in the opposition. In the end, it appears Sinn Féin lost the support of the older voters, extinguishing the optimism the party entered 2024 with. 

In an attempt to balance the conflicting elements of their coalition, both parties ended up with a shaky message that convinced and pleased no one. The issue likely played a role in the disappointing electoral results for both parties. Immigration will remain an important issue and it will be interesting to see how the messaging changes as both parties look to rebuild before the next election.