Generational Gaps and the Road Ahead for Sinn Féin
Patrick McSweeney received his PhD from Georgetown University in December 2024. His dissertation explored generational conflict within the American Democratic Party. He currently works as a research specialist at Georgetown’s Civic Education Research Lab (CERL) and as an adjunct lecturer in the Government Department. Learn more about Patrick’s research at his website.
In my previous blog, I showed that ideology and frustration with the status quo were driving much of the Sinn Féin support from young voters. The youth’s rejection of the traditionally dominant parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and their embrace of Sinn Féin has reshaped Irish politics. However, if Sinn Féin intend to grow its base and eventually lead a government, it will have to consider all the priorities within the coalition.
My PhD dissertation in Georgetown’s Government Department focuses on generational conflict within American parties, especially the Democratic Party. I argue that young people have different priorities, attitudes, and preferences for candidates. This intra-party conflict can have consequences for the direction of the party. I saw Sinn Féin as an interesting comparative case to extend my research.
In this post, instead of comparing young Sinn Féin members to other young people, I compare six different age groups of Sinn Féin supporters. I analyze the same variables: ideology, issues, and frustration toward the government. Some differences between age groups could have consequences, but these gaps, as would likely be expected, are smaller than the inter-party differences we observed previously between right and left-party blocs.
Beginning with ideology, we observe that the young cohorts are the most left-leaning. However, across age groups, it appears the party is well sorted by ideology. One trend we observe throughout this analysis is the importance of looking within the groups we might consider young voters. In my previous analysis, I grouped the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups, but it appears there is important heterogeneity within this group. The youngest members of the cohort are the furthest to the left.
Perhaps the issue that could be most consequential for conflict in the coalition moving forward is the environment. Climate change is an issue that will impact the younger cohorts disproportionately as countries worldwide work to find solutions. The question used in this survey asks respondents about potential tradeoffs between addressing the environment and the economy. The responses from the young voters reflect the protest actions we have seen from this group—they want action now. A future left-leaning government would likely include the Green Party, further increasing the salience of the issue. Young voters, especially amongst the youngest group, have shown they want the party to prioritize the issue. However, conflict over costs, both economic and political, could limit the party’s options.
Irish unification has been the defining issue of Sinn Féin on the island. This question asks how much the country should prioritize the issue, with lower numbers meaning higher priority. We see that young voters fit into the party not just because of left-leaning economic and cultural issues, but also because they agree with the party’s policy on the question of Irish Unity. Perhaps this divergence between young and old party voters is related to socialization. This group did not grow up witnessing the conflict associated with questions of Irish Unification, so they may evaluate the costs associated with the issue differently than older members.
On income differences and taxes versus spending, the party seems fairly unified. If we dig deeper into how they want the party to address these issues, we may observe greater differences, but the voters seem united on economic issues.
One topic that separated young Sinn Féin voters from other young voters was frustration with the status quo. Young voters were more likely to see the government as corrupt and gave the economy and government poor evaluations. Comparing them to older members of their party, we see they are almost outliers in the opposite direction. Older party members are even more frustrated with the government.
Again we see important differences between the 18-24 age group and the 25-34 age group. For many in that youngest group, this is their first time participating in national electoral politics. Much of this group may still be at university, so the full extent of the economic hardships may not have hit them yet.
Sinn Féin was able to run a campaign that criticized and distanced themselves from the policies of both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. By playing the role of opposition and presenting plans to address pressing issues, Sinn Féin likely attracted voters eager for change. However, it is hard to determine the causal direction here. Is Sinn Féin attracting voters who are disgruntled with the status quo, or is this evidence that their campaign rhetoric persuaded voters to be more critical of the government? It is likely that both are happening. Crises, scandals, and other pressures have likely pushed the Irish party system in a new direction. Many voters are hoping for an “end of an era,” and see Sinn Féin as the party best positioned to lead that transition.
Sinn Féin’s populist messaging appears to resonate with these voters. This is an easy message for a party in the opposition to make. As Sinn Féin continues to grow, they will have to begin to show results or their messaging could be turned on their leadership. They have built a large coalition, but groups inside the coalition will be fighting for their own interests and policy demands. If they continue to be the voice of the ideological left, there is a bloc of voters ready to support them. But if that representation feels insufficient, the new era may be led by a different party.