The Rise of Alliance: An Uncertain Third Path in Northern Irish Politics
Louis Bonnefous was an MA student studying Democracy and Governance in the Department of Government.
On May 5th, 2022, Northern Irish voters elected their new assembly for the first time in five years. The results were unprecedented, with Sinn Féin achieving a historic 29% of the votes. The nationalist party surpassed the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which came second with approximately 21% of the votes. The opposition between the nationalist and the unionist camp is a tradition in Northern Irish politics. It is between Sinn Féin and the DUP that elections and institutions are structured. But the 2022 elections saw the face of a new challenger rising, the Alliance Party. Alliance came third in those elections with 13.5% of the votes and a total of 17 seats. This is a 4.1% increase compared to the 2017 elections, and this result should be seen to be just as historical as the victory of Sinn Féin. What caused these results, and what lessons can be drawn from them?
Source: LSE (London School of Economics)
The Alliance party was founded in 1970 on unionist bases. For its first two decades of existence, it did not play a significant role in Northern Irish politics. Then came the 1990s, and Alliance decided to make a shift by adopting a more neutral position in the nationalist-unionist debate. In the Northern Ireland Assembly, Alliance was then designated as “other.” Following that shift, the party supported the signing of the Good Friday Agreement and has been a strong defender of the treaty since its adoption in 1998. Electoral results only came later with the arrival of Naomi Long as party leader in 2016. Since then, the increase in votes for Alliance has been exponential.
One of the potential reasons for this trend is the new strategy adopted. There now seems to be a clear focus on the youth electorate. This is firstly done through youth organizations such as Alliance Youth, whose goal is to identify and recruit potential candidates for the party. At the same time, elected Alliance officials have developed a discourse clearly focused on the younger portion of the population. Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) have repeatedly accused the current government of not dealing with youth unemployment. With an unemployment rate of 10.3% for the 16-24 age group (compared to only 3.7% in the global population in 2021), this strategy could be seen as electoralist more than a real interest for young people. As former MLA Patricia O’Lynn said, “Alliance focuses on bread-and-butter issues and the food on the table,” rather than the traditional debate on Northern Ireland’s independence. This focus on the youth is also present in some of the Alliance’s political proposals. Key policies include an integrated education between Protestants and Catholics, a new health care system, a progressive position on immigration, a strong defense of LGBTQ+ rights, and support of a Green New Deal.
When looking at the last election, this strategy could be seen as successful. Most of the newly elected Alliance MLAs come from the east side of the island, especially within Belfast and its suburbs. The population of Belfast has the highest rate of youth in the country (8.37% of 20-24 years old), and out of the four Assembly seats allocated to Belfast, two of those were won by Alliance. However, a question remains on the reality of this narrative. Are Alliance’s recent electoral performances mostly due to more votes from the youth electorate?
The narrative built by Alliance itself should not be considered wholly accurate. For example, national surveys from 2021 show another story. According to the Northern Ireland Time and Survey (NILT) agency, 24% of 18-24 year-olds who were asked which political party they support answered with Sinn Féin. This result is significantly higher compared to Alliance, with only 14% of support from this same age group, and only one point ahead compared to the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP). In fact, Alliance’s best scores on this survey are found in the 55-64 and 64+ age groups, with respectively 21% and 23% of support. This survey questions the Alliance’s discourse, but their recent results can be explained by other factors.
2016 not only marked the arrival of Naomi Long as the new Alliance party leader, but it was also the year when Brexit was voted on. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union by a tight majority received little support in Northern Ireland compared to other parts of the UK, especially England. 55.8% of Northern Irish people voted to remain in the EU, and Alliance along with Sinn Féin strongly contributed to the “remain” campaign. On the other side of the spectrum, the DUP campaigned to leave the union. This campaign marks the turning point for Alliance, as the party will start gaining more popularity during every new election. Their pro-European discourse, combined with the fragmentation of the unionist bloc resulted in Alliance becoming the third political force in Northern Ireland. Since 2016, both the DUP and the UUP have seen a drastic decline in vote shares in the 2017 and 2022 Assembly elections. While Alliance was originally founded on unionist bases, its pro-European approach may have inclined some voters to trust them more than any other party that previously supported the “leave” vote. However, this push from Alliance as a third way to vote in Northern Ireland remains uncertain.
Source: BBC (British Broadcasting Company)
While Alliance has gained a significant number of seats in the Assembly, their political power may be questioned. Firstly, the debate between independentists and unionists is still prominent in Northern Irish society. Many voters still identify with this debate, and the neutrality defended by Alliance might result in an electoral glass ceiling. But this neutrality also negatively affects Alliance institutionally. Currently, the institution of Northern Ireland requires that the First and deputy First Minister positions be held by one independentist and one unionist party. This was established to protect the peace that followed the Good Friday Agreement in the country. Ultimately, even if Alliance ever receives the second most votes in future Assembly elections, the party would not be able to hold the most powerful and important political positions. The party has already called for a change in the law, but it remains unlikely that any other major political forces will support it.
This research remains a work in progress with one question: what is the future of Alliance in Northern Irish politics? While Alliance has now become a major political force on the island, the party’s future is blurry. Since the election results, no government has been formed due to the blockade from the DUP. This gives Alliance no potential leverage to defend or promote their policies. The different problems regarding the neutrality question may also block Alliance in its objective to change Northern Ireland. The transition from an opposition to a governmental party seems complicated. But while the current situation remains uncertain, it is certain that Alliance will play a role in the new political future of Northern Ireland.